Chesapeake gets a Valuation

LNG prices set records

“How to invest in 2021: (1) is this company/stonk a meme?; (2) if not, can it become one?” - Turner Novak


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CHESAPEAKE CH11.

  • Management’s proposal was $4.1BN

  • Creditors proposed $7BN

  • The Judge (this week): $5.1BN

For context, management’s original proposal (from Oct.) assumed 2021 WTI of $42.

Today, it’s at $52 - the curve has moved materially since the proposal.

A higher price makes sense.

Oct. Plan Forecasts (Docket 1622)

H/t to @WAR527 for pointing out the news:

When Chesapeake filed, oil / gas prices were grim.

It’s only appropriate that they are set to emerge into a market w/ record LNG prices…


LNG.

Much of the Northern Hemisphere has seen extremely cold weather in the past few days.

Extreme to the extent that gas & electricity prices - around the world - have surged.

Today’s electricity spot prices in Japan set records.

Spain saw local gas price records in the past couple days.

In Asia, LNG prices have hit levels that are 10x higher than last year’s lows.

All of this has culminated in a shortage of LNG *tankers*

Weather aside, increasing renewables - often by replacing coal - in an electricity mix (which many Western countries are doing) means that more gas is needed in extreme events.

That’s good news for gas… at least this week -


OTHER NEWS.

Oil / sports aside, this was one of the stranger forecasts we’ve seen.

At the time it was made (Dec. 21st), none of the forecast seemed like a possibility (the event was at the Capitol, on Jan. 6th) to us.

*But some of it happened*.

The forecast was made by an Israeli analyst, Arieh Kovler.

A few details were eerily on-point.

We’re not endorsing this analyst - we don’t know much about him.

But, when someone can see the future (even w/ partial accuracy), we pay attention -


That’s it for this week - Matt’s a Packer’s shareholder, so we’re rooting for Green Bay - catch y’all next week -

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